A Brief Summation of the History of Current and Projected Conflicts in the World

Part One

EUROPE:
Old Europe, or Western Europe doesn’t have much going on right now. Perhaps it’s worn itself out. I dunno. Two problems present themselves.

The first is the Basque separatist movement in Spain. The Basques are a people with a language distinct from any of the surrounding languages. They may be the original inhabitants of the Iberian Penensula that were forced up into the hills and mountains by all the newcomers long before the Romans conquored the region.

The separatist movement is touted as a nationalist movement, despite the general integration of the population it claims to represent into Spanish society. They actively seek independence for the Spanish Basque region, and make few claims on the corresponding French region because they seem to use that area as a refuge. The French have made some arrests but it’s the Spanish have suffered the major terrorist attacks. The attacks are bombings, currently against transportation and tourism sites.

The movement is fading because the Spanish Basque provinces have been given a good deal of self-rule, and because fewer and fewer Basques speack their native language. It’ll sputter on but it’s not going anywhere.

The other problem, a major one and a growing one, is the Islamic migration to Europe and the lack of integration of those populations. The huge numners of Muslim immigrants to Europe have created a situation where a number of countries have been forced to adopt policies that cater specifically to them. Based on immigration and population growth rates, it may be not too many decades in the future before we see a couple of countries that are majority Muslim in Old Europe.

This has current and profound future significance for the War on Terror. The Saudis have not neglected the Muslim populations of Europe with funding for mosques and schools teaching the Wahabi version of Islam. Couple that with the fact that far more young men have moved to Europe than women creates a ready-made pool of disaffected young men taught to hate the West.

Attacks by Moslems against European targets will increase over the next decade. The United Kingdom has seen the beginnings of this. France has, as well, with the frequent rioting in its Moslem communities.

Please note that extremists have clearly stated that their aim is to reclaim all of Europe that once was Moslem, and then take the remainder.

In Eastern Europe, the conflicts generally relate to the actions taken at the end of World War II or the breakup of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact. The Balkans is an exception, with its own unique circumstances.

While it is generally not stressed in American courses about Europen History or World War II, the change of boundries at the end of that war has now created a conflict. Russia’s borders were moved west, at the expense of a variety of its neighbors. Poland lost a large part of its east, and in return the Polish boundry in the west was moved further west. Tens of thousands of German and Polish nationals were relocated, often at gun point, due to these changes. The same thing happens in the Baltic, and in the south for Romania.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, the various nationalities affected by these boundry moves began to agitate for a reversal. The Baltic states, which also suffered forced immigration by native Russians, have been especially forceful in attempting to correct their situations. Moldova, the Romanian area taken by the Soviets, is independant, but a large chuck of the country remains under the control of the Russian army because it is settled by native Russians. Neither the Romanians nor the Moldavians have the resources to fix this, but both countries have flung themselves headlong into the arms of NATO as a reaction and that annoys the Russians greatly.

The Ukraine and Belarus are another post-Soviet flash point. Both countries have gone through a varied adoption of democracy with the Ukrainians having far more success. Belarus, for all practical purposes, remains a Soviet dictatorship. It’s border problems with Poland have caused a great deal of diplomatic fuss and local media chest pounding. The Ukraine still has to deal with the Russian refusal to yield historicly Ukrainian regions such as Crimea, and the large numbers of Russian troops as well as their Black Sea Fleet in the area. Again, the Russians are less than thrilled with the Ukraine’s leap into NATO’s arms.

The Balkans, specificly the former Yugoslavia, present a unique problem. Yugoslavia was cobbled together after World War I from the bits and pieces left by the Austro-Hungarian empire and the Ottoman Empire. It worked fairly well until the Warsaw Pact collapsed. Then things went to heck in a handbasket.

Each of the nationalities in the area has a long memory. What they remember most is their “glorious and heroic resistance to the Turk“. What they also remember is their neighbor’s support of the Turk that resulted in their “glorious and heroic defeat by the Turk“, due to the deceit and treachery of their neighbor. What they forget is their having done that exact thing at some other point in time. The truth is that at some point in time every nationality in the Balkans found it necessary to ally itself with the Turk and against one or more of its neighbors. Needless to say, since they all remembered their history imperfectly, thoughts of dire revenge simmered for centuries until the area was no longer under the thumb of Communism.

Couple that with the assistance certain nationalities provided the Germans in WWII, and you have a toxic mix. The fighting and killing we have seen has not sated the thirst for revenge of many of the groups in the region. The Saudis, with their usual torrent of money, have further inflamed the mix by their support of Muslims of all nationalities who want to kill non-Muslims.

Kosovo is the tip of the iceburg and this area will seathe with hate for decades to come.

That wraps up that fun place we call Europe. This series will continue so keep checking back.

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This entry was posted by Chuck Simmins on Monday, July 23rd, 2007 at and is filed under Analysis, History, Original writing. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.