The Coming Pandemic Wave
The number of cases of swine flu / novel H1N1 / pandemic A)H1N1 or whatever the powers that be are calling it today are declining in the United States. That does not mean that it has disappeared, or that other parts of the world are not in the middle of a severe outbreak. It merely means that many of the places where the virus spread quickly are closed for the summer.
Schools, from pre-K through college, are closed or have reduced numbers of students on campus. Schools are where the outbreak took off this spring in the U.S.
Current clusters are in places where young people are congregated in the summer. Jails, camps, military recruit training and other similar locales are the sites of some current outbreaks.
If we assume that the U.S. population is 300 million people, predictions are that 30% of us will catch swine flu before the pandemic is over. That amounts to 90 million Americans. The current death rate is about 0.7%, and if that holds true, 630,000 people will die from this flu and related issues. In a normal seasonal flu year, about 39,000 people die from flu and its complications.
Look at it another way. If pandemic swine flu does not change at all, when it returns in the fall it will kill nearly twenty times as many people as an ordinary influenza season does. A vaccine will not be ready when school opens. It may not be ready by Christmas.
The flu will be back. The age group that is most susceptible will be back in school in late August and early September. Seasonal flu season starts in late October. Unless the swine flu becomes milder, this fall and winter will see a level of illness we have not seen in decades. It will strain our hospitals and emergency medical services, and they will break in some places.
If the flu comes back stronger and more virulent, then the projected numbers of sick and dead will increase. Just how bad things will get is unknown.
Table of contents for Pandemic Flu United States 2009
- Pandemic Flu in the United States June 12 2009
- Pandemic Flu in the United States June 15 2009
- Pandemic Swine Flu in the United States June 17 2009
- Pandemic Swine Flu – H1n1 in the United States June 22 2009
- Pandemic Swine Flu – H1n1 in the United States June 24 2009
- Pandemic Swine Flu – H1N1 in the U.S. Military
- Pandemic Swine Flu – H1n1 in the United States June 25 2009
- Pandemic Swine Flu – H1N1 in the United States June 29 2009
- Pandemic Swine Flu – H1N1 in the United States July 1 2009
- Coast Guard Is Prepared for Pandemic Flu
- Pandemic Swine Flu – H1N1 in the United States July 6 2009
- Pandemic Swine Flu – H1N1 in the United States July 10 2009
- Pandemic Swine Flu – H1N1 in the United States July 14 2009
- Pandemic Swine Flu – H1N1 in the United States July 16 2009
- Pandemic Swine Flu – H1N1 in the United States July 21 2009
- Pandemic Swine Flu – H1N1 Discussion for July 25 2009
- The Coming Pandemic Wave
- U.S. Military Handles Pandemic Flu
- The Future of Pandemic Flu in American Public Schools
- NORAD Personnel Have Pandemic Flu
- Military cases of pandemic flu continue
- Pandemic flu planning in states where school is in session
- U.S. schools start to see pandemic flu
- Swine Flu to cost schools billions
- More Pandemic Swine Flu in schools as they open for fall
- Mississippi States adresses Swine Flu on campus
- Pandemic swine flu beginning to surge in U.S.
- Swine flu update – October 6 2009
- Where is Swine Flu spreading in New York State?
- Why is it taking so long to get the flu vaccine?
- CBS Exclusive Report on H1N1 uses fake numbers?
- My television interview
- Swine Flu in the United States for November 7 2009
This entry was posted on Monday, July 27th, 2009 at 11:19 pm and is filed under Original writing, Commentary, Medicine, Influenza, Medicine, Original writing, Medicine, Pandemic, Medicine, Swine Flu. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.