Here’s a compelling piece by James Pethokoukis at the Capital Commerce blog on the U.S. News & World Report site.

With oil prices continuing to plunge—and they may have a lot further to go—I’ve started wondering about this “what if” scenario: Where would oil prices be today had we abandoned Iraq to civil war and al Qaeda? What if President Bush had announced on Jan. 10, 2007, that instead of surging U.S. troops under the command of General Patraeus, he was ordering their withdrawal? Imagine if Iraq had descended in complete chaos and terror and genocide. Somalia or Rwanda on the Tigris and Euphrates, I guess.

I agree with Pethokoukis. The prospect of dramatic instability in Iraq and the region would push oil prices well into the stratosphere. Oil is down 20% from its peak and it may fall even further. There are two main reasons for that, Iraqi stability and the Republican drive to drill now. Neither are actually adding oil supply, but the spike in prices was not just about supply and demand. The spike was about the future and investor fears. Calm those fears, even with added supply five years out, and prices drop.

The surge in Iraq has been a success by any measure, Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell said during a news conference July 23.

The policy, announced by President Bush in December 2006, pushed additional brigades in to Iraq to provide a security umbrella so the Iraqi military could build and the country’s government could grow.

The surge has allowed Iraq to make improvements from security, political and economic standpoints, Morrell said. The last of the five surge brigade combat teams recently left Iraq.

“By every metric that we measure violence in Iraq, there has been a dramatic improvement from where things were before the surge,” Morrell said. “I’ll just point to one, and that is [that] in July of last year, we had 79 U.S. [servicemembers killed in action] in Iraq. We have four thus far this month.”

The dramatic security gains have provided room for political and economic successes. “You name it, it is happening in Iraq,” Morrell said. “Do you want to talk about political gains? We’ve had basically all the major benchmark legislation passed.”

The Sunni bloc has returned to the government, 10 of 18 Iraqi provinces are under local control, and Najaf International Airport has reopened. “You see a $300 million luxury hotel opening up in the Green Zone [and] $50 million in refurbishment of the airport road,” Morrell said. “There’s economic investment, and there’s political progress. There’s increased security. All those things are undeniable, and they are attributable to the fact that we plussed up forces in there.”

There were, of course, other factors at work in the security improvement, Morrell said, but the surge and the change in U.S. counterinsurgency strategy made all else possible. The “Anbar Awakening” that allied formerly insurgent Sunni Muslims with the coalition and influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s cease-fire were other factors, he said, but he noted they didn’t happen independently of other events.

“If we think that Sadr acted in a vacuum, I think we’re kidding ourselves,” Morrell said. “There clearly was political and military pressure which caused him to make a decision to have his troops stand down.

“But we benefitted from it, no doubt,” he continued. “There’s no question that the awakening in Anbar, the cease-fire by Sadr, simultaneous to the surge, has helped the overall security situation in Iraq.”

MNF-I
By Jim Garamone
American Forces Press Service

AP via SFgate.com, here’s an analysis of the improving electric generation situation in Iraq.

The electricity gains have been possible because violence in Iraq has dropped to its lowest level in more than four years. The change has been driven by the 2007 buildup of American forces, the Sunni revolt against al-Qaida in Iraq and Iraqi government crackdowns against Sunni extremists and Shiite militias, among other factors.

The last of the five Army brigades to deploy with the “troop surge” in Iraq will return in July after a 13-month deployment, during which soldiers detained more than 800 terrorist suspects and helped foster Iraqi self-governance.

he 3rd Infantry Division’s 2nd Brigade Combat Team has operated in the Arab Jabour area of southeastern Baghdad, where the number of attacks plummeted from about 30 a week when they arrived in May 2007 to about one a week now.

“All in all, it’s been a very successful operation for us,” Army Col. Terry Ferrell, 2nd Brigade Combat Team commander, told reporters at the Pentagon today via video teleconference from Forward Operating Base Kalsu, in Baghdad.

President Bush announced the temporary 33,000-troop surge in January 2007 to tamp down violence in Iraq and help prepare Iraq’s national security forces to maintain security. The first surge brigade went home in March, and the final redeployment next month will reduce the number of brigades in Iraq to 15.

During their tour, 2nd Brigade soldiers’ main duties have included blocking weapons from entering the Iraqi capital, protecting the local population and quashing sectarian violence. The soldiers also have focused on making Iraqi security forces more capable, fostering the local governance and economy, and setting up Iraqis for long-term self-reliance.

The primary enemies, Ferrell said, have been al-Qaida and Sunni extremists who had created a sanctuary in Arab Jabour, where terrorists controlled the population through fear and intimidation. Insurgents used homes, farms and commercial properties as bases of operation and bomb-making factories, devastating the region’s economy.

Without a sustained security presence in the area, local residents often were bereft of basic necessities such as clean water, electricity, health care and education, the colonel added.

But over the course of the year, 2nd Brigade helped establish 11 patrol bases in Arab Jabour. The centers are manned by coalition and Iraqi security forces who work and live together and coordinate efforts of some 5,000 citizen security group members known as “Sons of Iraq.”

Coalition and Iraqi security forces, along with the Sons of Iraq, achieved significant gains through three division-focused operations: Marne Torch I, Marne Torch II and Marne Thunderbolt.

“The combined efforts of these operations resulted in over 800 suspects detained, over 600 weapons caches found and over 500 [homemade bombs] safely destroyed, and nearly 6,000-plus houses cleared so that we could continue to move through the area of operations, providing for a safe, secure environment,” Ferrell said.

The colonel added that, in addition to these operations, an increased Iraqi army role in the area allowed local citizens to enlarge their presence.

“Over this past year, we’ve helped create city councils in each of our population areas,” he said. “Neighborhood councils now give our communities a direct voice to the government.”

Moreover, in the wake of security gains, the local agriculture and economy have flourished. In addition, private clinics continue to open, electricity and water are flowing easily into the area, and the community has established 25 new or refurbished schools.

“As we prepare to redeploy as the last of the five surge brigades,” Ferrell said, “it’s clear that the government of Iraq has begun to shoulder a larger responsibility for the citizens in the area that we have operated.

“Furthermore, the capacity and capabilities of the Iraqi army has improved tremendously throughout our time here and the operations we have conducted jointly throughout the operation,” he added. “All these vehicles of change combined to generate momentum towards prosperity, security and self-reliance.”

DoD
By John J. Kruzel
American Forces Press Service

These are the men and women that General Cardon talked about with me, and this story demonstrates the results of their hard work. Now they’re coming home. Well done!

The numbers only begin to tell the story: 5,943 houses cleared, 1,433 suspects detained, 1,241 small-arms fire engagements, 577 weapons caches found and 532 improvised explosive devices safely destroyed.

The 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division, is already busy with the task of preparing for the journey home. As the last of the “surge brigades,” arriving in the south Baghdad area last June, 2nd BCT Soldiers had a difficult but important mission to fulfill. Now, as they prepare to hand the torch to those who will continue the mission, they can look back and see a place not only made safer, but ready to reap the benefits of security.

“When we entered [the area], our task was to go in and stay,” said 2nd BCT commander Col. Terry Ferrell. “We were to go in and block accelerants from entering Baghdad, protect the population and defeat the sectarian violence that was going on in the area.”

Setting the Scene

In the summer of 2007, the area south of Baghdad on the west bank of the Tigris River was considered one of the most dangerous places in all of Iraq. The majority-Sunni population had largely boycotted the 2005 elections, and soon began to feel the effects brought by lack of government representation. In addition to essential services such as clean water and electricity, citizens clearly needed security.

Al-Qaida in Iraq strictly and violently ruled the area and its citizens. To combat the militants, 2nd BCT used the combat power of the 1st Battalion, 30th Infantry Regiment; 1st Squadron, 40th Cavalry Regiment; 5th Squadron, 7th Cavalry Regiment; 6th Squadron, 8th Cavalry Regiment and the 1st Battalion, 187th Infantry Regiment. There was also a fledgling Iraqi Army battalion supporting the area.

“When 2nd BCT first assumed control of the Spartan (2nd BCT) operating environment in June 2007, the brigade was faced with a unique and challenging situation,” said Capt. Lauren Glaze, 2nd BCT provost marshall. “The only Iraqi security force present in the brigade OE was an undermanned and underequipped Iraqi army battalion, stretched thinly across a quarter of the area,”

Al Qaeda in Iraq

Sectarian strife and rumors of ISF targeting and killing Sunnis led many to distrust the largely-Shia army and police, Glaze said.

“What developed was really a petri dish for al-Qaida to grow,” said Lt. Col. Kenneth Adgie, commander of 1-30th Inf. Regt., a mechanized infantry battalion.

AQI infiltrated the area, using homes and farms in the region as bases of operations and bomb-making factories. Attacks on coalition forces and ISF were on the rise. Citizens themselves felt the effects of terrorist activity.

“They used ultra-violent means to inflict incredible pain on the Iraqi people here. They deprived people of resources to control their behavior,” Adgie said.

Coalition forces were attacked 95 times in the first two weeks, as they pushed into areas they had not been since 2003. After establishing Patrol Base Murray just 16 kilometers south of Baghdad, Soldiers of the 1-30th Inf. Regt. began moving south and east to secure the area along the banks of the Tigris River called Arab Jabour; because AQI had firmly established a presence there, it was not easy.

AQI Defense in Depth

“What we discovered was a well-built, elaborate, defensive belt,” said Ferrell, a native of Huntington W.Va.

Improvised explosive devices, many of them buried deep, made travel in the area difficult. A combination of air assaults and ground strikes enabled the Soldiers to capture and hold territory from al-Buaytha down the banks of the Tigris to Sayafiyah.

“From June 16 until the first of February of this year, we were in full-scale kinetic operations,” Ferrell said. “Simultaneously, we were doing humanitarian assistance and working to build local governance.”

As coalition forces secured the area, citizens came to realize the benefits of working with them.

Sons of Iraq

One of the key elements to success in holding the newly-gained areas was the formation of the Sons of Iraq, a volunteer security force of Iraqi citizens initially formed to guard important infrastructure such as roads and power stations. Coalition forces trained and worked with the SoI to secure their neighborhoods and help oust AQI, Glaze said.

“The training included classes on the SoI role in securing the community, basic first aid, basic self-defense tactics, the use of force and an overview of basic security principles,” Glaze said. “As a result, the SoI received the information they needed to successfully assist in removing hundreds of al-Qaeda, caches and IEDs from the battlefield.”

An important turning point came in November, Ferrell said.

“We had a battle in Hawr Rajab in November, on Thanksgiving Day, when al-Qaida attacked to try and take back the city. We stood arm-in-arm; you had coalition, ISF, SoI. You had Sunnis and Shia banding together and you could not tell anyone apart,” he said. “From that day forward, I’ve always highlighted that one battle, when they were standing there as brothers to take care of one another.”

Another key event was Operation Marne Thunderbolt, intended to deny al-Qaida safe havens in the area.

“Just as recently as January, we dropped over 40,000 pounds of ordnance as we fought down the southeast in our area of operations, finalizing one of the last major kinetic operations,” Ferrell said.

Sons of Iraq helped coalition forces identify safe houses, weapons caches and IEDs, which in some cases were eliminated with air strikes. Between January 10 and 20, more than 100,000 pounds of bombs were dropped in the Arab Jabour area by coalition aircraft.

Adgie, a native of National Park, N.J., marked Jan. 22 as the date when AQI left Arab Jabour. In the past four months, SoI membership in the Spartan AO has grown to 5,400, greater than the number of coalition forces and IA in the area combined. Their involvement, Adgie said, has kept AQI from returning.

The next step toward making security sustainable in the area was to increase the amount of ISF in the area, particularly the Iraqi police.

Iraqi Government Steps Up

“In September 2007, the governor of Baghdad visited Arab Jabour and promised the local leadership and coalition forces that Arab Jabour would have an IP station by mid-2008,” said Glaze, from Woodbridge, Va.

“After his visit we noticed an obvious change in the locals’ opinion of the ISF, specifically towards the IP. Over 300 SoI came forward and said they wanted to go through the IP recruiting process,” Glaze said.

The police station is currently under construction.

“The ground has been broken and they are in the process of building the structure,” Ferrell said.

Ferrell credits the established security for the construction of the new IP station, as well as GoI and Iraqi leadership coming down to witness the security for themselves.

Even before IP forces could be established in the area, IA forces began to work alongside their coalition counterparts, living and conducting operations alongside them. Two IA battalions now conduct patrols with coalition forces and work with the SoI to maintain security.

“There are more hard days along the way,” Ferrell said. “We have to work to build the ISF, we have to continue to build confidence in the ISF, in the progress they are making.”

Another key to continued peace, Ferrell said, is programs that encourage agriculture and industry, provide job training and bring local governments closer to the government in Baghdad.

“It’s all about momentum,” Ferrell said. “The security that’s been established is fragile. If you want to maintain it, you’ve got to keep these other programs running. That’s how we’re going to maintain the success we’ve established with the surge.”

DVIDS
By Sgt. David Turner
2nd Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division