First, the latest on the Ukraine:

17 November 2009 — Preliminary tests reveal no significant changes in the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus based on investigations of samples taken from patients in Ukraine. Analyses are being performed by two WHO influenza collaborating centres as part of the global influenza surveillance network.

Preliminary genetic sequencing shows that the virus is similar to the virus used for production of the pandemic influenza vaccine, reconfirming the vaccine’s efficacy at this time.

Additional questions about the pandemic virus circulating in Ukraine will be answered as more data is available.

WHO commends the government of Ukraine for its open sharing of samples to inform global monitoring of the virus for signs of change.

A total of 34 samples were analysed independently by the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Mill Hill in London, UK, and the WHO Collaborating Centre for the Surveillance, Epidemiology and Control of Influenza in Atlanta, Georgia, USA.

WHO

As of 8 November 2009, worldwide more than 206 countries and overseas territories or communities have reported laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, including over 6250 deaths.

As many countries have stopped counting individual cases, particularly of milder illness, the case count is likely to be significantly lower than the actual number of cases that have occurred. WHO is actively monitoring the progress of the pandemic through frequent consultations with the WHO Regional Offices and member states and through monitoring of multiple sources of data.

The winter influenza season, which began unusually early across much of the Northern Hemisphere, shows early signs of peaking in parts of North America but is intensifying across much of Europe and Central and Eastern Asia.

In North America, Canada reported sharp increases in rates of influenza-like-illness (ILI), detections of pandemic H1N1 virus, and school outbreaks over the past three weeks as pandemic activity continues to spread west to east. In the United States, influenza transmission remains geographically widespread and intense but largely unchanged since the previous reporting week; rates of hospitalizations among persons aged 0-4 years, 5-17 years, and 18-49 years have now exceeded those seen during recent previous influenza seasons. Disease activity may have peaked in the earlier affected southern and south eastern parts of the United States. In Mexico, influenza activity remains geographically widespread with a significant wave of cases reported since early September, most notably from central and southern Mexico.

In Europe and Central Asia, overall influenza transmission continues to intensify throughout the continent as pandemic activity spreads eastward. At least 10 countries of Western Europe (Iceland, Poland, Romania, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom) now report that the proportion of sentinel samples testing positive for influenza exceeded 20% consistent with active circulation of pandemic influenza viruses. High to very high intensity of respiratory diseases with concurrent circulation of pandemic H1N1 2009 was also reported in the Netherlands, Italy, much of Northern Europe, Belarus, Bulgaria, and in the Russian Federation (particularly in the Urals). Disease activity may be peaking in a few countries, notably Iceland, Ireland, and parts of the UK (Northern Ireland) that experienced intense transmission during early autumn. Because of a sharp rise in pandemic influenza cases one week ago in Ukraine, the Ministry of Health requested assistance from WHO European Regional Office to evaluate and respond. The initial analysis of information indicates that the numbers of severe cases do not appear to be excessive when compared to the experience of other countries and do not represent any change in the transmission or virulence of the virus.

Over 99% of subtyped influenza A viruses in the Europe were pandemic H1N1 2009 with the exception of the Russian Federation where <10% of viruses subtyped were seasonal influenza subtypes, H3N2 and seasonal H1N1.

In Western Asia, increasing activity has been observed in several countries. In Israel, sharp increases in rates of ILI and pandemic virus detections have been observed over the past 3 weeks. In Afghanistan, the proportion of sentinel visits for acute respiratory infections (ARI) has increased over the past 3-4 weeks, but more dramatically in the last 1-2 weeks.

In East Asia, very intense and increasing influenza activity continues to be reported in Mongolia with a severe impact on the healthcare system. In China, the proportion of sentinel hospital visits for ILI and the proportions of respiratory samples testing positive for influenza, continued to increase over the past 3-4 weeks. More than 80% of influenza viruses isolated in China were pandemic H1N1 2009. In Hong Kong SAR, rates of ILI have returned baseline after a recent wave of predominantly pandemic H1N1 influenza in September and October. In Japan, sharp increases in influenza activity continue to be reported nationally. On northern island of Hokkaido, which to date has been the most heavily affected, disease activity may have recently peaked.

Although active, predominantly pandemic influenza transmission persists in the Caribbean region, disease activity may have recently peaked in some places as evidenced by recently declining rates of ARI and severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre (CAREC) countries. Most other countries in the tropical region of Central and South America continue to report declining influenza activity.

With the exception of Nepal and Sri Lanka, overall transmission continues to decline in most parts of South and Southeast Asia.

In the temperate region of the southern hemisphere, little pandemic influenza activity has been reported in recent weeks. Of note, a cluster of pandemic influenza cases been reported in Argentina in the capital area.

WHO

Europe:

Seventeen countries have reported increases in influenza-like illness (ILI) and/or ARI consultations (defined as countries with increases in the previous three weeks). These increases are particularly notable in the group aged 5–14 years. In eight of these countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, Spain and Sweden), the positivity rate of sentinel swab specimens exceeded 20% (minimum number of tested sentinel specimens: 20).

The intensity of clinical activity was described as very high in Norway, Sweden, Bulgaria and the Republic of Moldova for the first time. Other countries reporting continued very high intensity this week were Iceland, Ireland and the Russian Federation (Urals region and far eastern region). Eight countries/regions described high clinical activity: Belarus, Finland, Kazakhstan, Poland, Russian Federation (central, north-western, Siberian and Volga region), Turkey, Ukraine and Northern Ireland. The clinical incidence of ILI and/or ARI was reported as widespread in 19 countries. The Republic of Moldova reported very high intensity, widespread clinical incidence and severe impact of influenza on health services. Impact was reported as moderate in nine countries, including Ukraine, and low in 17 others.

EuroFlu

The CDC continues to release data on Fridays for the previous week. The data in this report is for the week ending November 7 and was released November 13, 2009.

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1. Visits to doctors for influenza like illness: second week that rates have declined. Now 6.7% and the seasonal baseline is 2.3%. Note, however, that many doctors are telling patients who call with ILI symptoms not to come in to the office unless it is serious.
2. Hospitalizations for lab confirmed influenza: still climbing.
3. Deaths from pneumonia and influenza: still increasing.
4. 46 states report widespread flu activity. That is down two states since the last weekly report.
5. Virus typing continues to find nearly all specimens are pandemic H1N1, swine flu.

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Don’t miss my television interview on the Time Warner local new channel, YNN. I was asked to counterpoint the county medical society president.

Is the Vaccine Production Process Broken?

Here are case counts for the pandemic swine flu, or pandemic novel H1N1 from the top five cities in the United States.

1. Milwaukee: 3,085 cases
2. Chicago and Cook county: 2,203 cases
3. New York City with Nassau, Suffolk, Rockland and Westchester counties: 1,449 cases
4. New York City alone: 1,149 cases
5. Hildalgo County, Texas: 600 cases

Here is the latest pandemic flu case count for selected cities and metro areas. Those cities in gray have ceased posting their counts, or are no longer counting.

Here are the latest available case counts for pandemic swine flu or pandemic novel H1N1 for select cities and urban area.