In a study released just before Christmas, researchers estimate that 14,000 Americans died due to the effects of radioactive materials released by the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident in March 2011. Joseph J. Mangano and Janette D. Sherman authored the paper which was published in the December 2011 International Journal of Health Services. The paper is titled “An Unexpected Mortality Increase in the United States Follows Arrival of the Radioactive Plume from Fukushima: Is There a Correlation?”. The full paper can be found at this link at radiation.org.

The researchers used data from the Centers for Disease Control’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR). The MMWR includes data from 122 U.S. cities reporting deaths for the week. The numbers of deaths for each city are broken down by age group, and the deaths related to pneumonia and influenza are also broken out. All data is preliminary and it takes nearly two years for the CDC to finalize the numbers. This report does not specify the cause of death.

The authors used the data from the MMWR reports for weeks 12 to 25, March 20 to June 25, 2011. That data was compared to the same period in 2010, as well as the fourteen weeks prior.

We took a look at infant deaths, children under 12 months of age. The study reports that infant deaths in the 122 cities rose by 1.8 percent year over year. Year over year for the prior fourteen week period, they declined 8.37 percent. They calculate that 822 infant deaths during the fourteen week study period were “excess”.

Recall that we used the term “preliminary” to refer to this data. We used the CDC’s database to search for the same data for the entire country for the study period. We found that our fourteen week total for infant deaths for 2011 agrees with the study, 2,743 deaths. However, the total for 2010 differs, and alters their analysis. They report 2,722 infant deaths for the period in 2010, while the current CDC count is 2,754. infant deaths went down year over year, not up by 1.8 percent.

Infant mortality in the United States. CDC data as of January 2, 2012. Click on the image for a larger view. Chart by Charles Simmins

Infant mortality in the United States. CDC data as of January 2, 2012. Click on the image for a larger view. Chart by Charles Simmins

Infant mortality in the United States. CDC data as of January 2, 2012. Click on the image for a larger view. Chart by Charles Simmins

Looking at the prior fourteen weeks’ data, MMWR weeks 50-11, the difference is even more striking. In the 2009-2010 period, infant deaths from our CDC data set equal 2,859. For the fourteen weeks prior to the study period, our 2010-2011 infant death total is 2,608. Infant deaths fell far more than the study states.

Among the weaknesses in this study are the failure to correct for pneumonia and influenza deaths. We included 2009 in our data. Weekly infant mortality totals for 2009 in the study period are much higher than for either 2010 or 2011. The novel H1N1 pandemic was affecting mortality in the United States. The flu is a key factor in mortality during the same time periods that the study examined.

The cities represent about 25 percent of the national population. Other questionable assumptions are that any effects from radioactive fallout would be evening distributed throughout the 122 cities in the data and that the effects in the cities would be equal to those in the rest of the nation.

The population rank tables provided in the study, tables four and five, demonstrate mortality variances that do not correlate with geography. One would expect West Coast cities to have a higher exposure to any Fukushima fallout, and thus demonstrate higher mortality rates. Houston leads with respect to an increase in mortality in both tables, not Los Angeles or San Diego.

We believe that the study’s authors have not proven their thesis. The current data refutes part of their analysis with respect to infant mortality. The authors use of just one prior year fails a commonsense test that you need more than two data points to establish a trend. They authors have not corrected the data with respect to the actual geographic distribution of fallout, nor did they make any attempt to correct for the effects of seasonal influenza or other variables such as violent deaths. Without a cause of death, any “excess deaths” which may be found cannot be related to Fukushima radiation and fallout.

At this point, if excess deaths exist, it is just coincidental that measurable amounts of radioactive byproducts from the Fukushima nuclear accident were found in the U.S. during the same time period.

Barge YOGN-115, carrying 1.04 million litres, 275,000 gallons, of fresh water, departs Commander, Fleet Activities Yokosuka to support cooling efforts at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. CFAY port operations cleaned and filled two barges, totaling nearly 1.89 million litres, 500,000 gallons, of fresh water. U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Mikey Mulcare

A team of Marines specifically trained to operate in chemical, biological, nuclear and radiological environments is deploying to Japan, Defense Department officials said today.

A 155-member initial response force composed of Marines from Naval Support Facility Indian Head, Md., could arrive in Japan as early as tomorrow, said Navy Cmdr. Leslie Hull-Ryde, a Pentagon spokeswoman.

The unit is part of the Chemical, Biological, and Incident Response Force. The initial response force will support the U.S. on-scene commander by providing a rapid response capability. If requested, it could also advise Japanese authorities.

The Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant is leaking radioactive materials, and the extent of the damage to the plant is not known. The Marine force will bring equipment for agent detection and identification; casualty search, rescue and personnel decontamination; and emergency medical care and stabilization of contaminated personnel.

U.S. Navy barges containing 500,000 gallons of fresh water from Yokosuka are being used at the crippled nuclear power plant. The water will be used to replace salt water in the reactor cooling system to lessen the corrosive impact of salt from the sea water still being used for emergency cooling.

By Jim Garamone
American Forces Press Service
Department of Defense

Hat tip to Information Dissemination

The U.S. 7th Fleet has temporarily repositioned its ships and aircraft away from the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Nuclear Power Plant after detecting low level contamination in the air and on its aircraft operating in the area.

The source of this airborne radioactivity is a radioactive plume released from the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Nuclear Power Plant. For perspective, the maximum potential radiation dose received by any ship’s force personnel aboard the ship when it passed through the area was less than the radiation exposure received from about one month of exposure to natural background radiation from sources such as rocks, soil, and the sun.

The ship was operating at sea about 100 miles northeast of the power plant at the time.

Using sensitive instruments, precautionary measurements of three helicopter aircrews returning to USS Ronald Reagan after conducting disaster relief missions near Sendai identified low levels of radioactivity on 17 air crew members. The low level radioactivity was easily removed from affected personnel by washing with soap and water. They were subsequently surveyed, and no further contamination was detected.

As a precautionary measure, USS Ronald Reagan and other U.S. 7th Fleet ships conducting disaster response operations in the area have moved out of the downwind direction from the site to assess the situation and determine what appropriate mitigating actions are necessary.

We remain committed to our mission of providing assistance to the people of Japan.

Seventh Fleet