CDC chart displaying the percentage of pneumonia and influenza deaths for week 3 of 2013 as reported by 122 cities.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

During week 3, 9.8% of all deaths reported through the 122 Cities Mortality Reporting System were due to P&I. This percentage was above the epidemic threshold of 7.3% for week 3.

The media often portrays the statistic shown above as the actual death rate from influenza. It is a sampling from up to 122 cities throughout the United States and reports deaths listed officially as due to pneumonia or influenza. The percentage is indicative of the ferocity of the influenza season. It does not, however, portray the actual death rate from influenza alone throughout the nation.
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Laboratory tests reveal influenza types and percentage of specimens that are not influenza.

The only way to be certain that any patient has influenza is to submit a specimen for laboratory testing. There are rapid tests for the flu but they are less accurate than those done in a lab. While procedures vary widely across the nation, specimens are submitted to labs when influenza is the suspected diagnosis.
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Map of ILI activity in the United States for week 1 of 2013

The weekly influenza report from the Centers for Disease Control was released this morning and contained data through Jan. 5, 2013. The CDC held a telephone press conference this morning to cover the report and a new study on flu vaccine effectiveness. Drs. Joseph Bresee and Tom Frieden were the briefing experts.
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Multiple news media outlets are violating the embargo on releasing the week 1 influenza report from the CDC. Here are a few thought, pending the release of the report in about two minutes.

The flu data for week 1 of 2013 comes with a big caveat. It covers Dec. 29 through Jan. 5.
> Schools were closed
> Major US holiday during the week
> Prior week was also major US holiday with schools closed.

The data for week 2, ending Jan. 12, will be more reflective of the current situation. California, as of week 52, had not entered the flu outbreak and it holds over 10 percent of the US population.

As public health officials whistle past the graveyard and proclaim that flu is declining in those southern states where it first appeared, they are all low population states AND with far different climates at this time of year than NY or Michigan.

Just three months into the 2012-2013 flu season, it appears that the United States will experience one of the most severe outbreaks this century. Data released by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) suggest that the annual outbreak of respiratory illness has arrived earlier, and with more severe illnesses, than at any time since 2003-2004. Only the pandemic flu outbreak may have produced more illnesses and deaths when this season ends in May.
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