The number of cases of swine flu / novel H1N1 / pandemic A)H1N1 or whatever the powers that be are calling it today are declining in the United States. That does not mean that it has disappeared, or that other parts of the world are not in the middle of a severe outbreak. It merely means that many of the places where the virus spread quickly are closed for the summer.

Schools, from pre-K through college, are closed or have reduced numbers of students on campus. Schools are where the outbreak took off this spring in the U.S.

Current clusters are in places where young people are congregated in the summer. Jails, camps, military recruit training and other similar locales are the sites of some current outbreaks.

If we assume that the U.S. population is 300 million people, predictions are that 30% of us will catch swine flu before the pandemic is over. That amounts to 90 million Americans. The current death rate is about 0.7%, and if that holds true, 630,000 people will die from this flu and related issues. In a normal seasonal flu year, about 39,000 people die from flu and its complications.

Look at it another way. If pandemic swine flu does not change at all, when it returns in the fall it will kill nearly twenty times as many people as an ordinary influenza season does. A vaccine will not be ready when school opens. It may not be ready by Christmas.

The flu will be back. The age group that is most susceptible will be back in school in late August and early September. Seasonal flu season starts in late October. Unless the swine flu becomes milder, this fall and winter will see a level of illness we have not seen in decades. It will strain our hospitals and emergency medical services, and they will break in some places.

If the flu comes back stronger and more virulent, then the projected numbers of sick and dead will increase. Just how bad things will get is unknown.

South Carolina leaps into the top three states with swine flu cases, surpassing California.

In response to an intensifying outbreak in the United States and internationally caused by a new influenza virus of swine origin, the World Health Organization raised the worldwide pandemic alert level to Phase 5 on April 29, 2009. A Phase 5 alert is a “strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.”

The United States Government has declared a public health emergency in the United States. CDC’s response goals are to reduce transmission and illness severity, and provide information to help health care providers, public health officials and the public address the challenges posed by this emergency. CDC is issuing and updating interim guidance daily in response to the rapidly evolving situation. CDC’s Division of the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) continues to send antiviral drugs, personal protective equipment, and respiratory protection devices to all 50 states and U.S. territories to help them respond to the outbreak. The swine influenza A (H1N1) virus is susceptible to the prescription antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir. In addition, the Federal Government and manufacturers have begun the process of developing a vaccine against this new virus.

CDC

The outbreak of disease in people caused by a new influenza virus of swine origin continues to grow in the United States and internationally. Today, CDC reports additional confirmed human infections, hospitalizations and the nation’s first fatality from this outbreak.

CDC

WHO from yesterday:

The situation continues to evolve rapidly. As of 19:15 GMT, 28 April 2009, seven countries have officially reported cases of swine influenza A/H1N1 infection. The United States Government has reported 64 laboratory confirmed human cases, with no deaths. Mexico has reported 26 confirmed human cases of infection including seven deaths.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths – Canada (6), New Zealand (3), the United Kingdom (2), Israel (2) and Spain (2).

The CDC case number site is unchanged at this time.

AP is claiming CDC confirmation of a swine flu related death in Texas, a toddler. The Texas Health Department site does not have this information.

AHN is reporting additional swine flu cases in Canada. The Canadian Public Health Agency has nothing at this time.

Along America’s North Shore there are a number of suspected cases. Concerning Rochester and Western New York State, 13 WHAM states:

Of the eight suspected cases of swine flu in the Rochester area:
–Five cases in Monroe County. The patients are all in their early 20s and have traveled to Mexico. None of them are students.
–One suspected case in Wayne County. That person has not been hospitalized, but recently traveled to Mexico and returned home feeling ill.
–Two suspected cases in Ontario County in two people who traveled to New York City.