China’s exports fell more than expected in January, down 17.5% from a year earlier, marking the biggest drop in more than 10 years, figures have shown.

Imports were down 43.1% in the month compared with a year ago, as China’s economy continued to be hit by the global economic slowdown.

Analysts say the slowdown could prompt more factory closures and job losses.

China’s global trade surplus widened to $39.1bn last month, after recording a surplus of $39bn in December.

BBC

The Ponzi scheme that is the Chinese economy is gravely threatened. Exports cannot fall for any length of time or the cash flow necessary to keep the economy super stimulated dies. Commodity prices must remain low and supply high. And the tens of millions of rural Chinese who work in the “new” economy must remain content.

We are seeing a variety of challenges to these imperatives. Month to month, the Chinese may be able to manage but if any of these turn into a long term trend, watch out.

As I have predicted in the past, the reaction by the boys in Beijing will be violent. Taiwan and the Russian Far East are most at risk but internal crackdowns will also be in the mix.