China’s exports fell more than expected in January, down 17.5% from a year earlier, marking the biggest drop in more than 10 years, figures have shown.

Imports were down 43.1% in the month compared with a year ago, as China’s economy continued to be hit by the global economic slowdown.

Analysts say the slowdown could prompt more factory closures and job losses.

China’s global trade surplus widened to $39.1bn last month, after recording a surplus of $39bn in December.

BBC

The Ponzi scheme that is the Chinese economy is gravely threatened. Exports cannot fall for any length of time or the cash flow necessary to keep the economy super stimulated dies. Commodity prices must remain low and supply high. And the tens of millions of rural Chinese who work in the “new” economy must remain content.

We are seeing a variety of challenges to these imperatives. Month to month, the Chinese may be able to manage but if any of these turn into a long term trend, watch out.

As I have predicted in the past, the reaction by the boys in Beijing will be violent. Taiwan and the Russian Far East are most at risk but internal crackdowns will also be in the mix.

Parts of China are experiencing their worst drought in half a century, threatening the water supply of millions of people and putting the winter harvest at risk, state media reported.

The dry spell has spread rapidly across seven key agricultural provinces, triggering calls from President Hu Jintao and other top leaders to step up support for the affected areas.

”The duration, scope and impact of the drought are rare,” said China Meteorological Administration chief Zheng Guoguang.

At least 3.7 million people and 1.9 million head of livestock are affected.

About 9.5 million hectares of farmland, representing 43 percent of the country’s winter wheat supplies, are also affected.

No rain has been forecast for the next 10 days.

The Standard Newspaper

China appears to be the focal point for avian flu [H5N1] cases so far in 2009. Of 9 reported cases, 7 are from China. Nearly all are reported to have had contact with poultry.

In Third World nations, especially rural regions, when livestock become sick, the rush is to slaughter them and perhaps use them before they die. Since H5N1 is primarily transmitted through contact with infected poultry, this means that every sick bird is a tiny hotspot of infection.

Here are the latest two reports from China.

WHO update 3

27 January 2009 — The Ministry of Health in China has announced three new confirmed human cases of H5N1 infection. The first, a 31-year-old female from Urumqi, Xinjiang Autonomous Region had onset of symptoms on 10 January. She received treatment in hospital but died on 23 January. Investigations into the possible source of her infection indicate recent visits to a live poultry market. The local authorities are currently conducting epidemiological investigations and close contacts are being monitored. To date, no clinical symptoms have been reported among the contacts.

The second case is a 29-year-old male from Guiyang city, Guizhou. He had onset of symptoms on 15 January and remains in a critical condition. Investigations into the source of his infection indicate possible exposure at poultry market.

The third case is an 18-year-old male from Beiliu City, Guangxi Province. He had onset of symptoms on 19 January and died on 26 January. Investigations into the source of his infection indicate a recent history of exposure to sick and dead poultry. Close contacts of the case are being monitored and to date all remain well.

Of the 37 cases confirmed to date in China, 25 have been fatal.

WHO update 4

2 February 2009 — The Ministry of Health in China has announced a new confirmed human cases of H5N1 infection. The case is a 21-year-old female from Xupu County, Hunan province. She had onset of symptoms on 23 January and remains in hospital in a clinically stable condition. Investigations into the source of her infection indicate possible exposure to sick and dead poultry.

Of the 38 cases confirmed to date in China, 25 have been fatal.

In 2009, there have been 9 cases reported, with 4 being fatal. Since the disease became contagious to humans, there have been 404 cases with 254 being fatal. WHO table

China faces surging protests and riots in 2009 as rising unemployment stokes discontent, a state-run magazine said in a blunt warning of the hazards to Communist Party control from a sharp economic downturn.

The unusually stark report in this week’s Outlook (Liaowang) Magazine, issued by the official Xinhua news agency, said faltering growth could spark anger among millions of migrant workers and university graduates left jobless.

“Without doubt, now we’re entering a peak period for mass incidents,” a senior Xinhua reporter, Huang Huo, told the magazine, using the official euphemism for riots and protests.

“In 2009, Chinese society may face even more conflicts and clashes that will test even more the governing abilities of all levels of the Party and government.”

Reuters

The mainland said on Wednesday [January 7 2009] that it will continue pushing forward dialogue and consultation with Taiwan in the new year by “firmly holding the main theme of peaceful development of the cross-Straits relations”.

Yang Yi, spokesman of the State Council’s Taiwan Affairs Office, made the remark at a press conference here.

Yang spoke highly of the recent speech of Hu Jintao, general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, at a December 31 workshop to mark the 30th anniversary of the mainland’s “Message to Compatriots in Taiwan”.

Hu’s speech summed up 30 years’ experience in developing cross-Straits relations in a comprehensive way, and he made a series of new proposals to develop the relationship, according to the official.

“This important speech is of great significance for us to accomplish Taiwan-related work and open up a new situation in the peaceful development of the cross-Straits relations,” the official said.

Yang discussed progress in developing cross-Straits ties in 2008.

Last year, the ties began entering the track of peaceful development as the pro-independence force failed in a “memorandum” on Taiwan joining the United Nations.

Also, the Taiwan situation showed positive changes, he said, without further elaboration.

Last year, the two sides lifted a decades-long ban on direct trade, mail and transport links; Taiwan compatriots gave selfless support to the quake survivors in the mainland; a pair of pandas arrived in Taiwan as a mainland gift and the mainland announced new measures to deepen cross-Straits cooperation and deal with the global financial crisis, according to the official.

The spokesman said that the mainland has always attached great importance to giving financial assistance to Taiwan-funded companies in the mainland. As of the end of 2007, mainland banks had lent more than 700 billion yuan (102 billion U.S. dollars) to such companies.

Three mainland banks have also agreed to offer 130 billion yuan in new loans to Taiwan-funded companies in the next two or three years.

China Daily