The third report to Congress about security and stability in Iraq has been submitted. It is in PDF format.Political Stability.
The Iraqis have now met all of the political benchmarks established by the Transitional Administrative Law and endorsed by United Nations Security Council Resolution1546, awaiting only the seating of the new Iraqi government. These milestones were accompanied by growing participation in the political process among Iraqis of all communities. On October 15, 2005, the Iraqi people ratified a permanent constitution. The vote was marked by an increase in Sunni Arab participation, showing a growing acceptance of using the political process to protect and advance their interests. The national election of December 15, 2005, to elect the first government under the new constitution, was marked by unprecedented turnout, low violence, and significant participation among all communities. About 77% voter turnout was reported nationally, eclipsing the 58% turnout from the January 2005 election. Although there were some voting irregularities, the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq determined that less than 1% of all ballot boxes were affected by these irregularities and took appropriate action. The UN election commissioner in Iraq stated that the election was “transparent and credible. “Negotiations are now underway among many parties and coalitions to ensure broad inclusion in the formation of the constitutionally elected new government.
Economic Activity. The Security Environment.
Economic indicators continue to be mixed, with some noteworthy achievements. Despite the difficult security environment, the Iraqi economy demonstrated overall macroeconomic stability during the past year. The currency remains stable; foreign exchange reserves are well above targets; and substantial debt reduction is moving apace. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates real growth in Gross Domestic Product of 2.6% for 2005 and projects higher growth for the next two years. Annual inflation is expected to moderate from annual rates above 30% in 2004 and 2005. International support for Iraq also continues to help rebuild the economy. The IMF approved Iraq’s proposal for an economic reform program in the form of a Stand-By Arrangement with the goal of maintaining macroeconomic stability and providing sustainable growth over the medium term. The IMF’s approval of the arrangement ensures that Iraq qualifies for the next portion of the Paris Club foreign debt reduction agreement. In key sectors, attacks on infrastructure and maintenance problems continue to hamper progress in producing and exporting oil and in delivering reliable electricity, but the communications sector continues its rapid growth with a 40% increase in cellphone subscribers since the last report.
During this reporting period, the President of the United States, acting upon the recommendations of military commanders, authorized an adjustment to the U.S. force posture in Iraq, decreasing the number of combat brigades in Iraq from 17 to 15, a reduction of about 7,000 troops. This decision was based on several indicators of progress but primarily the growing capability of Iraqi Security Forces. In the security environment in general, the single most important indicator of success in meeting security objectives is the failure of anti-Iraqi forces in their campaign to derail the political process and alienate the Iraqi people from democratic governance. Three successful national elections in the past year, each with increasing voter turn-out and growing participation in the political process, clearly indicate that terrorists and other anti-Iraqi forces do not represent the Iraqi people. However, as expected during this period, the total number of attacks against Iraqi and Coalition targets have risen. Attacks remain concentrated in four of Iraq’s eighteen provinces, and eleven provinces averaged one or fewer attacks per day over the reporting period. The complexity and effectiveness of these attacks range from a single insurgent executing an ineffective small arms attack to a coordinated attack of several dozen enemy fighters using different weapon systems. There have been only four of these more complex coordinated attacks in the last six months. Over three quarters of all attacks result in no casualties or serious damage and the percentage of car bombs intercepted and defused is steadily increasing. Terrorist attacks have failed to create and spread sectarian conflict, and polls of Iraqi perceptions continue to show the isolation of terrorists and foreign fighters from the Iraqi people.
