Marburg: Slowly Dying Out
The Marburg epidemic in Angola is slowly dying. My graphic analysis of the WHO data is here. The average number of cases since the virus was identified on March 21 has declined to an average of 4.4 new cases per day, and 3.6 deaths per day on average. The moving average for the death rate remains just above 90%, where it has been for two months. It would not surprise me to see a couple hundred more cases before the disease disappears. WHO is having some difficulty, given the impoverished region, in identifying and isolating all the exposures. But, the data suggests that they’re gaining some traction, and conditions will continue to improve.
