UPDATE: As Bill Quick and a number of others point out, the definition of “family” becomes important when analyzing the poll results. I suspect that an extended family of up to 100 members may meet the Iraqis’ definition rather than our norm of 2 adults and 2.2 children. The poll as posted by ORB is not clear.
Don’t let your neighborhood loony lib read this. His head might explode.
March 07 – Despite violence only 26% preferred life under Saddam
One in four (26%) Iraqi adults have had a family relative murdered in the last three years, while 23% of those living in Baghdad have had a family/relative kidnapped in the last three years.
These are the findings released today from the largest poll into Iraqi opinion ever to be published. Carried out by UK polling firm O.R.B., which has been tracking public opinion in Iraq since 2005, the poll shows that despite the horrendous personal security problems only 26% of the country preferred life under the previous regime of Saddam Hussein, with 49% preferring life under the current political regime of Noori al-Maliki. As one may expect, it is the Sunnis who are most likely to back the previous regime (51%) with the Shias (66%) preferring the current administration.
Carried out amongst a nationally representative sample of 5,019 Iraqi adults aged 18yrs+ and coming just days before the fourth anniversary of the invasion of Iraq, the poll reveals that despite the rising number of civilian deaths each month as a result of militia activity, only 27% would concede that their country is actually in a state of civil war. Opinion here is clearly divided, as 22% feel “we are close to a state of civil war but not yet in one” while 18% argue that the country is “still some way from civil war”.
Regionally, 43% of those in the Shia dominated South of the country claim “Iraq will never get as far as civil war”. This figure in the Sunni dominated north plummets to 5% where most (42%) feel the country is already in a state of civil war.
Regionally there are significant differences on attitudes towards the relationship between the security situation and the presence of troops. Nationally, one in two (53%) feels that the security situation in Iraq will get better in the immediate weeks following a withdrawal of Multi National Forces.
However, those in the South appear to be more ready to accept a gradual withdrawal than those in the North. 69% of the Shia dominated South feel the situation will get a great deal/little better, while only 10% feel it will get worse. In the Sunni north, opinion is evenly divided – 46% feel it will get better and 37% feel it will get worse.
What about talk of creating a federal Iraq? With the exception of the Kurdish population in the North of the country, a majority support Iraq remaining as a single country run by a central national government. On this point Sunnis (57%) and Shias (69%) agree that the country should continue as one nation.
Note:
The opinion poll was conducted by O.R.B. and the survey details are as follows:
•Results are based face-to-face interviews amongst a nationally representative sample of 5,019 adults aged 18+ throughout Iraq.
•The standard margin of error on the sample size is +1.4%
•The methodology uses multi-stage random probability sampling and covers every one of the eighteen governorates within Iraq.
•Interviews conducted 10th – 22nd February 2007.
From the final tables [pdf file]:
- President George Bush has announced that he will be sending 20,000+ troops to Iraq in the coming months? Why do you think he is doing this? 33% say to bring security and stability back to Iraq. 27% don’t know, refused or did not answer. 22% said to attack neighboring countries
- And thinking ahead, do you believe that the security situation in Iraq will get better or worse in the immediate weeks following a withdrawal of Multi National Forces? 63% said a great deal or a little better.
- Noori Al-Maliki’s government has announced a new security plan which they say will disarm all Militias. Do you believe that it will do so? 45% say yes. 22% say no.
- Do you have any members of your family that have left Iraq over the previous four years as a result of the security situation? 72% said no. 9% said moved to Kurdish areas.
- Taking everything into account, do you feel that things are better for you now under the present political system or do you think thinks were better for you before under the previous regime of Saddam Hussein? 49% said better now. 26% said better under Saddam. 16% said neither.
- If I asked you about your religion, what do you prefer your answer to be? 61% said Muslim.
The poll suggests several conclusions.
- The majority of Iraqis think of themselves as Muslim first, and not Sunni or Shia.
- A significant number of Iraqis don’t know why we are doing the surge.
- Iraqis believe things will get better after we leave.
- Iraqis have a great deal of belief that the current government will do what it says it will.
- Massive numbers of Iraqis are not fleeing the country or becoming internal refugees.
- About half of Iraqis believe things are better now. Only a quarter still pine for the good old days.
There are many statistics that are of interest in the poll. Employment status, for one, seems better than we have heard. I am especially heartened by the finding that Iraqis think of themselves as Muslim first and not Sunni or Shia. I am also delighted to observe that Iraqis support a single state / central government.
[...] via TheTimes Online via Drudgeshowing that Iraqis think life is better now than with Saddam. Yeah. America’s North Shore Journal digs a little deeper and shows that Iraqis think violence will go down when we leave. hmmmm. The [...]
Iaqi Poll Numbers…
…that we won’t see John Murtha quoting any time soon…….
I thought that the poll results were interesting compared to the headlines for this poll that I saw on the USA Today website:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2007-03-18-iraq-poll_N.htm?csp=34
I’ll be interested in how USA Today and the other MSM outlets got their numbers and from where.
GP
[...] Americas North Shore Journal March 07 – Despite violence only 26% preferred life under Saddam [...]
I don’t know — looking at those numbers the situation doesn’t seem that sanguine. It’s long been known that support for partition is primarily among Kurds, both Sunnis and Shias support a strong central government — they just disagree — violently — as to whom should be in charge.
Likewise, a majority of Shia, understandably enough, prefer the current regime, but a majority of Sunni preferred Saddam. This poll seems to confirm, not disprove, the media reports from Iraq.
Same split with the civil war question.
Thanks for posting this.
Iraqi Optimism & The Media’s Bias…
So there was a poll recently taken in Iraq and the numbers are not surprising. DESPITE sectarian slaughter, ethnic cleansing and suicide bombs, an opinion poll conducted on the eve of the fourth anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq……
What about the stat that says 4 in 5 of those living in Baghdad have personal experience of a family member, friend or colleague being killed or kidnapped in the last 3 years… 1 in 2 for the whole country. Seems a pretty clear indication of the number of Iraqi casualties…
[Editor: read the poll again, your numbers are wacky. Nationwide, 26% report murders in the last three years. In Baghdad, 23% report kidnaps in the last three years, no where near what you state.]
These polls always leave out something big. For one thing, do the Iraqis want the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq right now? I believe they do, but in failing to ask, the poll forces us to guess.
And because the poll failed to ask, “Should the U.S.-led coalition withdraw from Iraq immediately?” we can’t say exactly what the Iraqis mean when they say Iraq’s security will get better when the coalition forces leave.
It probably means the Iraqis are confident that U.S.-led coaltion forces won’t leave prematurely, that they believe the coalition will make sure the Iraq’s democracy has a strong enough army first.
But the opponents to a victory for democracy almost certainly will make a weak argument that the poll means the Iraqis want the coalition to leave this instant.
How was the “Do you want them to leave now” question omitted?
And why didn’t they ask how soon the Iraqis thought their own army would be able to protect their new democracy without the coalition’s help?
I have to shake my head when pollsters go through all the trouble of visiting 5,000 Iraqis, and then they forget to ask some fairly vital questions.
[...] Jules Crittenden, Outside the Beltway, NewsBusters.org, PoliPundit, Pajamas Media, Blogs for Bush, America’s North Shore Journal, TigerHawk and Gateway [...]
[...] Daily Dish, America’s North Shore Journal, NewsHog, No More Mister Nice Blog, Liberty Street, Don Surber, Captain’s Quarters, Outside [...]
The question about whether things are better or worse seems unreliable. You can’t bring up the name of Saddam Hussein, because people will respond to that, not the substance of the question. I expect you would get a different answer if you worded it as, “Do you feel your situation has gotten better or worse since US troops entered the country?”.
[...] America’s North Shore Journal [...]
[...] Polling of Iraqis doesn’t suggest the hopeless air of despair and defeat that Congress is trying to ensure this year so far. (Tip to Instapundit). The poll suggests this fight is not the hopeless quagmire that our press would have you believe: [...]
We have won two of the three wars in Iraq.
War I The Baathist discredited and the fear of their return is done. They are finished.
War II The Al Queda Sunni terrorists have been all but annihilated. They are almost ineffectual. This is shown by the willingness of local SUNNI Arabs leaders to launch pogroms against the Sunni Al Queda terrorists, without fear for their own Safety!
WAR III Iran’s economy is tottering. Under-developed, it can’t provide surplus for subsidizing Hamas, Hezb’Allah, Lebanon, Syria, Iraqi Shia and the Mahdi Army. Oh, did I mention it was expensive to conduct a “Manhattan Project”. Then there is the problem of UN sanctions, too. There are rumors of rising internal unrest and even rebellions and incipient guerrilla wars in the North and South of Iran proper.
Am I the only one to notice that the company that produced the negative ABC/USA Today/BBC poll – D3 Systems – is the same one involved in the bogus Lancet Iraqi death toll study?
“Iraqis believe things will get better after we leave.”
Seems straightforward.
They don’t want us there.
Anything else requires tortured logic and obtuse assumptions.
[...] On this point Sunnis (57%) and Shias (69%) agree that the country should continue as one nation. Americas North Shore Journal __________________ P. J. O’Rourke: The Democrats are the party of government activism, the party [...]