America's North Shore Journal

CBS News Exclusive: Study Of State Results Finds H1N1 Not As Prevalent As Feared

Chuck Simmins states:

I looked at the story and my jaw dropped. Without any research at all, I could tell something was wrong with their numbers.

CBS graphic for story on confirmed H1N1 testing

These numbers are supposed to be through late July, when the CDC asked the states to change their reporting. As we have shown in our prior reports, many of the states had ceased reporting case numbers long before.

Florida:

• Florida had stopped publicly posting case counts before Memorial Day in May, 2009. The numbers in the table were updated with the CDC’s count.
• CBS states that by the end of July, Florida had examined 8,853 specimens and only 17% were positive for H1N1. That means the CBS number of confirmed cases at that point is 1,505.
• However, based on the cases reported to the CDC by July 17, Florida had 2,188 confirmed cases.

California:

• CBS is reporting that California had examined 13,704 specimens and only 2% were H1N1. That makes the CBS case count 274.
• On July 16, 2009, California was reporting 2,655 confirmed cases and 513 probable cases of swine flu.

Alaska:

• CBS is reporting that Alaska had examined 722 specimens and only 1% were H1N1. That makes the CBS case count 7.
• As of August 31, a month after the apparent cutoff for the CBS data, Alaska reported 460 confirmed cases of swine flu.

Georgia:

• The final state that CBS selected to graph was Georgia. CBS says 3,117 specimens and only 2% were H1N1. That gives CBS a confirmed case count of 62.
• Through July 15, 2009, Georgia reported 178 confirmed cases of swine flu.

From the beginning, we raised questions about the data on swine flu. We noted, and were the media source responsible for correcting, the nearly three week delay in updating California’s numbers. We noted the “lost” cases, where the numbers on the state site were higher than those reported by the CDC.

We have editorialized about the lack of preparedness on the part of public health authorities to handle a large disease outbreak. Their unwillingness to divert resources from other areas such as lead paint abatement and childhood obesity has been noted.

We agree that the decision to stop widespread testing was unwise. We agree that there are a number of influenza like illnesses (ILI) circulating.

But this story by CBS does nothing to advance the cause. The numbers are just plain wrong. The selection of the four states they chose for their graph is also misleading. Alaska and Georgia did not suffer a major outbreak of swine flu in the spring. California’s was mid sized and Florida’s was, as well. If CBS wanted to look at states, Wisconsin, Illinois, Massachusetts and Washington would have been ideal picks. That is where the pandemic took hold the worst.