Here’s a compelling piece by James Pethokoukis at the Capital Commerce blog on the U.S. News & World Report site.

With oil prices continuing to plunge—and they may have a lot further to go—I’ve started wondering about this “what if” scenario: Where would oil prices be today had we abandoned Iraq to civil war and al Qaeda? What if President Bush had announced on Jan. 10, 2007, that instead of surging U.S. troops under the command of General Patraeus, he was ordering their withdrawal? Imagine if Iraq had descended in complete chaos and terror and genocide. Somalia or Rwanda on the Tigris and Euphrates, I guess.

I agree with Pethokoukis. The prospect of dramatic instability in Iraq and the region would push oil prices well into the stratosphere. Oil is down 20% from its peak and it may fall even further. There are two main reasons for that, Iraqi stability and the Republican drive to drill now. Neither are actually adding oil supply, but the spike in prices was not just about supply and demand. The spike was about the future and investor fears. Calm those fears, even with added supply five years out, and prices drop.

The surge in Iraq has been a success by any measure, Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell said during a news conference July 23.

The policy, announced by President Bush in December 2006, pushed additional brigades in to Iraq to provide a security umbrella so the Iraqi military could build and the country’s government could grow.

The surge has allowed Iraq to make improvements from security, political and economic standpoints, Morrell said. The last of the five surge brigade combat teams recently left Iraq.

“By every metric that we measure violence in Iraq, there has been a dramatic improvement from where things were before the surge,” Morrell said. “I’ll just point to one, and that is [that] in July of last year, we had 79 U.S. [servicemembers killed in action] in Iraq. We have four thus far this month.”

The dramatic security gains have provided room for political and economic successes. “You name it, it is happening in Iraq,” Morrell said. “Do you want to talk about political gains? We’ve had basically all the major benchmark legislation passed.”

The Sunni bloc has returned to the government, 10 of 18 Iraqi provinces are under local control, and Najaf International Airport has reopened. “You see a $300 million luxury hotel opening up in the Green Zone [and] $50 million in refurbishment of the airport road,” Morrell said. “There’s economic investment, and there’s political progress. There’s increased security. All those things are undeniable, and they are attributable to the fact that we plussed up forces in there.”

There were, of course, other factors at work in the security improvement, Morrell said, but the surge and the change in U.S. counterinsurgency strategy made all else possible. The “Anbar Awakening” that allied formerly insurgent Sunni Muslims with the coalition and influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s cease-fire were other factors, he said, but he noted they didn’t happen independently of other events.

“If we think that Sadr acted in a vacuum, I think we’re kidding ourselves,” Morrell said. “There clearly was political and military pressure which caused him to make a decision to have his troops stand down.

“But we benefitted from it, no doubt,” he continued. “There’s no question that the awakening in Anbar, the cease-fire by Sadr, simultaneous to the surge, has helped the overall security situation in Iraq.”

MNF-I
By Jim Garamone
American Forces Press Service

Soldiers from the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division, are redeploying back to Fort Stewart, Ga., this month.

The 2nd BCT deployed in May 2007 as the fifth surge brigade. Its mission was to block accelerants from entering Baghdad, protect the local population, defeat sectarian violence, continue to increase the capacity of the Iraqi Security Forces, foster local governance and economic systems, and to set the conditions for long-term self-reliance.

The 2nd Brigade, as part of Multi-National Division Center, primarily conducted operations southeast of Baghdad, which included population centers in Abu Waitha, Hawr Rajab, Adwaniyah, Madhariyah and Sayafiyah.

“The security environment created by the 2nd BCT operations and our efforts in enabling an increased Iraqi Army role in the area set the conditions for the local citizens to step up and begin to take control of their future,” said Col. Terry Ferrell, 2nd Brigade Commander, during a June 19 Pentagon Press Conference. “Over this past year, we’ve helped create city councils in each of our population areas. Neighborhood councils now give our communities a direct voice to the government.”

Since May 2007, six agricultural unions were formed and linked to the Ministry of Agriculture. In addition, specific industries such as row crops, poultry, fish and beef farming businesses were reinvigorated by the development of the agriculture unions and their ability to reach out to and work with the local ministries.

“Improved security trends since the inception of the surge helped create an environment where criminals are degraded and the Iraqi people have retaken control of their future, without the fear of intimidation and violence,” said Brig. Gen. Daniel B. Allyn, Chief of Staff, Multi-National Corps – Iraq.

“The surge accomplished many things for which the 2nd Brigade Combat Team and our Coalition Team can be very proud, said Allyn. “The safe and secure environment created through hard work by Iraq’s citizens, Iraqi Security Forces and our Coaltion provides opportunity and a brighter future for Iraq. The Soldiers of the 2nd Brigade Combat Team did a tremendous job and we send them home to their families with the pride and gratitude of the Iraqi citizens and their Coalition teammates for their extraordinary contributions to the long-term security for the people of Iraq.”

MNF-I

AP via SFgate.com, here’s an analysis of the improving electric generation situation in Iraq.

The electricity gains have been possible because violence in Iraq has dropped to its lowest level in more than four years. The change has been driven by the 2007 buildup of American forces, the Sunni revolt against al-Qaida in Iraq and Iraqi government crackdowns against Sunni extremists and Shiite militias, among other factors.

The last of the five Army brigades to deploy with the “troop surge” in Iraq will return in July after a 13-month deployment, during which soldiers detained more than 800 terrorist suspects and helped foster Iraqi self-governance.

he 3rd Infantry Division’s 2nd Brigade Combat Team has operated in the Arab Jabour area of southeastern Baghdad, where the number of attacks plummeted from about 30 a week when they arrived in May 2007 to about one a week now.

“All in all, it’s been a very successful operation for us,” Army Col. Terry Ferrell, 2nd Brigade Combat Team commander, told reporters at the Pentagon today via video teleconference from Forward Operating Base Kalsu, in Baghdad.

President Bush announced the temporary 33,000-troop surge in January 2007 to tamp down violence in Iraq and help prepare Iraq’s national security forces to maintain security. The first surge brigade went home in March, and the final redeployment next month will reduce the number of brigades in Iraq to 15.

During their tour, 2nd Brigade soldiers’ main duties have included blocking weapons from entering the Iraqi capital, protecting the local population and quashing sectarian violence. The soldiers also have focused on making Iraqi security forces more capable, fostering the local governance and economy, and setting up Iraqis for long-term self-reliance.

The primary enemies, Ferrell said, have been al-Qaida and Sunni extremists who had created a sanctuary in Arab Jabour, where terrorists controlled the population through fear and intimidation. Insurgents used homes, farms and commercial properties as bases of operation and bomb-making factories, devastating the region’s economy.

Without a sustained security presence in the area, local residents often were bereft of basic necessities such as clean water, electricity, health care and education, the colonel added.

But over the course of the year, 2nd Brigade helped establish 11 patrol bases in Arab Jabour. The centers are manned by coalition and Iraqi security forces who work and live together and coordinate efforts of some 5,000 citizen security group members known as “Sons of Iraq.”

Coalition and Iraqi security forces, along with the Sons of Iraq, achieved significant gains through three division-focused operations: Marne Torch I, Marne Torch II and Marne Thunderbolt.

“The combined efforts of these operations resulted in over 800 suspects detained, over 600 weapons caches found and over 500 [homemade bombs] safely destroyed, and nearly 6,000-plus houses cleared so that we could continue to move through the area of operations, providing for a safe, secure environment,” Ferrell said.

The colonel added that, in addition to these operations, an increased Iraqi army role in the area allowed local citizens to enlarge their presence.

“Over this past year, we’ve helped create city councils in each of our population areas,” he said. “Neighborhood councils now give our communities a direct voice to the government.”

Moreover, in the wake of security gains, the local agriculture and economy have flourished. In addition, private clinics continue to open, electricity and water are flowing easily into the area, and the community has established 25 new or refurbished schools.

“As we prepare to redeploy as the last of the five surge brigades,” Ferrell said, “it’s clear that the government of Iraq has begun to shoulder a larger responsibility for the citizens in the area that we have operated.

“Furthermore, the capacity and capabilities of the Iraqi army has improved tremendously throughout our time here and the operations we have conducted jointly throughout the operation,” he added. “All these vehicles of change combined to generate momentum towards prosperity, security and self-reliance.”

DoD
By John J. Kruzel
American Forces Press Service