Registered nurse 2nd Lt. Rebeccah Collins vaccinates Alexia Woods, 12, for chicken pox and meningitis during the Carl R. Darnall Army Medical Center School Physicals and Immunization Clinic at Fort Hood, Texas. Photo by Jeri Chappelle, CRDAMC Public Affairs

Every state mandates a set of immunizations in order for a child to enter public school. Some also require immunizations as the student gets older. The list varies slightly but a pertussis (whooping cough) immunization is required in all states.

Not every student in public will have all their immunizations. Every state also provides for conditions of exemption from one or more of the mandated immunizations.
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Airman 1st Class Andrew McCutchen receives an immunization. U.S. Air Force photo/Staff Sgt. Nathan Bevier

Parents are asked to approve a variety of immunizations for their children. The various recommended vaccines are given beginning within a few months of birth and continue for the next dozen years and more. Some parents believe, without a scientific basis, that vaccines routinely harm children and that children are better off unvaccinated.

The United States Army has some experience with infectious disease. They keep records. The historical data for some diseases which we now prevent with a vaccine is available on line. Here are just some of the costs to the Army and the troops.
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Whip inflation now - Gerald Ford

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) keeps track of the average retail price for a number of common items as a U.S. city average. Let’s take a look at a few. We used the price for the month President Obmam was inaugurated, January 2009, and the last month of data available, December 2011. The items are sorted in descending order by the percentage increase of the price during the Obama administration.

Graph of BLS data on average gasoline prices from January 2001 to December 2011

Graph of BLS data on average fuel oil prices from January 2001 to December 2011

Now, we are told repeatedly that inflation is low. We looked at the Consumer Price Index data at the BLS.

The increase for all items works out to be 6.9 percent for the period.

BLS graph of the Consumer Price Index CPI-U for 2009 to 2011. 1984 is base of 100.

The increase for food prices during the period works out to be 4.7 percent.

BLS graph of the CPI-U for food from 2009 to 2011

Something just doesn’t seem right here. How can the CPI show so little increase when compared to some individual items?

Really? OK, so we went to the BLS page with the item data, copied it to a spreadsheet, and deleted unnecessary columns. Here is the BLS list of price changes from December 2010 to December 2011, sorted by percentage change. Two pages of items with price increases year over year and about a half page of price decreases. Take a look and use the comments to comment.

In a study released just before Christmas, researchers estimate that 14,000 Americans died due to the effects of radioactive materials released by the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident in March 2011. Joseph J. Mangano and Janette D. Sherman authored the paper which was published in the December 2011 International Journal of Health Services. The paper is titled “An Unexpected Mortality Increase in the United States Follows Arrival of the Radioactive Plume from Fukushima: Is There a Correlation?”. The full paper can be found at this link at radiation.org.

The researchers used data from the Centers for Disease Control’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR). The MMWR includes data from 122 U.S. cities reporting deaths for the week. The numbers of deaths for each city are broken down by age group, and the deaths related to pneumonia and influenza are also broken out. All data is preliminary and it takes nearly two years for the CDC to finalize the numbers. This report does not specify the cause of death.

The authors used the data from the MMWR reports for weeks 12 to 25, March 20 to June 25, 2011. That data was compared to the same period in 2010, as well as the fourteen weeks prior.

We took a look at infant deaths, children under 12 months of age. The study reports that infant deaths in the 122 cities rose by 1.8 percent year over year. Year over year for the prior fourteen week period, they declined 8.37 percent. They calculate that 822 infant deaths during the fourteen week study period were “excess”.

Recall that we used the term “preliminary” to refer to this data. We used the CDC’s database to search for the same data for the entire country for the study period. We found that our fourteen week total for infant deaths for 2011 agrees with the study, 2,743 deaths. However, the total for 2010 differs, and alters their analysis. They report 2,722 infant deaths for the period in 2010, while the current CDC count is 2,754. infant deaths went down year over year, not up by 1.8 percent.

Infant mortality in the United States. CDC data as of January 2, 2012. Click on the image for a larger view. Chart by Charles Simmins

Infant mortality in the United States. CDC data as of January 2, 2012. Click on the image for a larger view. Chart by Charles Simmins

Infant mortality in the United States. CDC data as of January 2, 2012. Click on the image for a larger view. Chart by Charles Simmins

Looking at the prior fourteen weeks’ data, MMWR weeks 50-11, the difference is even more striking. In the 2009-2010 period, infant deaths from our CDC data set equal 2,859. For the fourteen weeks prior to the study period, our 2010-2011 infant death total is 2,608. Infant deaths fell far more than the study states.

Among the weaknesses in this study are the failure to correct for pneumonia and influenza deaths. We included 2009 in our data. Weekly infant mortality totals for 2009 in the study period are much higher than for either 2010 or 2011. The novel H1N1 pandemic was affecting mortality in the United States. The flu is a key factor in mortality during the same time periods that the study examined.

The cities represent about 25 percent of the national population. Other questionable assumptions are that any effects from radioactive fallout would be evening distributed throughout the 122 cities in the data and that the effects in the cities would be equal to those in the rest of the nation.

The population rank tables provided in the study, tables four and five, demonstrate mortality variances that do not correlate with geography. One would expect West Coast cities to have a higher exposure to any Fukushima fallout, and thus demonstrate higher mortality rates. Houston leads with respect to an increase in mortality in both tables, not Los Angeles or San Diego.

We believe that the study’s authors have not proven their thesis. The current data refutes part of their analysis with respect to infant mortality. The authors use of just one prior year fails a commonsense test that you need more than two data points to establish a trend. They authors have not corrected the data with respect to the actual geographic distribution of fallout, nor did they make any attempt to correct for the effects of seasonal influenza or other variables such as violent deaths. Without a cause of death, any “excess deaths” which may be found cannot be related to Fukushima radiation and fallout.

At this point, if excess deaths exist, it is just coincidental that measurable amounts of radioactive byproducts from the Fukushima nuclear accident were found in the U.S. during the same time period.

The slideshow illustrates the unemployment data for each July for the last decade, 2002 to 2011.