CBS News Exclusive: Study Of State Results Finds H1N1 Not As Prevalent As Feared

Chuck Simmins states:

I looked at the story and my jaw dropped. Without any research at all, I could tell something was wrong with their numbers.

CBS graphic for story on confirmed H1N1 testing

These numbers are supposed to be through late July, when the CDC asked the states to change their reporting. As we have shown in our prior reports, many of the states had ceased reporting case numbers long before.

Florida:

• Florida had stopped publicly posting case counts before Memorial Day in May, 2009. The numbers in the table were updated with the CDC’s count.
• CBS states that by the end of July, Florida had examined 8,853 specimens and only 17% were positive for H1N1. That means the CBS number of confirmed cases at that point is 1,505.
• However, based on the cases reported to the CDC by July 17, Florida had 2,188 confirmed cases.

California:

• CBS is reporting that California had examined 13,704 specimens and only 2% were H1N1. That makes the CBS case count 274.
• On July 16, 2009, California was reporting 2,655 confirmed cases and 513 probable cases of swine flu.

Alaska:

• CBS is reporting that Alaska had examined 722 specimens and only 1% were H1N1. That makes the CBS case count 7.
• As of August 31, a month after the apparent cutoff for the CBS data, Alaska reported 460 confirmed cases of swine flu.

Georgia:

• The final state that CBS selected to graph was Georgia. CBS says 3,117 specimens and only 2% were H1N1. That gives CBS a confirmed case count of 62.
• Through July 15, 2009, Georgia reported 178 confirmed cases of swine flu.

From the beginning, we raised questions about the data on swine flu. We noted, and were the media source responsible for correcting, the nearly three week delay in updating California’s numbers. We noted the “lost” cases, where the numbers on the state site were higher than those reported by the CDC.

We have editorialized about the lack of preparedness on the part of public health authorities to handle a large disease outbreak. Their unwillingness to divert resources from other areas such as lead paint abatement and childhood obesity has been noted.

We agree that the decision to stop widespread testing was unwise. We agree that there are a number of influenza like illnesses (ILI) circulating.

But this story by CBS does nothing to advance the cause. The numbers are just plain wrong. The selection of the four states they chose for their graph is also misleading. Alaska and Georgia did not suffer a major outbreak of swine flu in the spring. California’s was mid sized and Florida’s was, as well. If CBS wanted to look at states, Wisconsin, Illinois, Massachusetts and Washington would have been ideal picks. That is where the pandemic took hold the worst.

Surprise! The AP seems to have gotten its story about Army Emergency Relief a little wrong.

John of Argghhh:

Just where did Donn get his information? We really don’t know. Col. Cohen isn’t exactly sure, and neither are his counterparts at other military charities. The AP article says that they analyzed the tax records of the AER, but if they were doing such a great job, how did they miss the following:

1. During the period in question ( ’03-07), the AER distributed $250 MILLION in financial assistance
2. Outstanding loan balances are considered an asset of the trust, even though the money is actually not in their possession. Much like a 401(k) plan, outstanding loan balances are included in the total assets, as if they money was still there, because it’s expected to be repaid. Only when a loan is defaulted upon is it reported as an actual expense. Considering the increase in aid given over the past few years, this fact alone explains the increase in “cash” reserves. It’s simple accounting that AP doesn’t seem to understand.
3. Current investment capital available for grants and loans fluctuates between $190-$200 million, depending on the day and how well the market is doing. Donn says that the fund swelled to $345 million between 2003-2007, and perhaps at one point it was… but it’s not now. The trust is not sitting idly. In order to be a good steward of the money, it’s invested, awaiting distribution to soldiers and their families.
4. During the period in question, the AER distributed nearly twice as much in aid as they received in donations and loan repayments.

In From the Cold:

If all of this sounds a bit familiar, it should. In December 2007, the Washington Post ran a similar piece on a wider range of military charities. But the conclusions were strikingly similar, and the AP tracked down some of the same critics contacted by the Post, including Daniel Borochoff, President of the American Institute of Philanthropy (AIP). We should note that the Post article was based on a report from Borochoff’s organization.

But that assessment also revealed a fundamental misunderstanding of how the AER–and its Air Force and Navy counterparts–operate. In his 2007 report, Mr. Borochoff wondered why the charities didn’t spend more money on homeless veterans. Apparently, he didn’t understand there are virtually no homeless among the groups served by these charities–active-duty military personnel, retirees and their families.

In a novel twist, Frank Garcia, the suspect in the 4 weekend murders, had a legal pistol permit. It may be the only murder in several years in this area committed by a legal handgun.

Today’s Democrat & Chronicle reports on his multi-year attempts to acquire a permit, as well as his prior criminal record. Outstanding leg work by reporters Brian Sharp and Meaghan McDermott.

The story online is accompanied by copies of all the various documents which is exactly the way a story ought to appear on the Net.

After a slow start, all the local media have been working hard on this story. Garcia’s work history has been explored as well as how he knew the two female victims in the case. Lots of background from neighbors and friends filling in the picture of who the four were and what their lives had been.

Despite his arrest record, he was able to obtain an Registered Nurse license and a pistol permit. He was also able to serve in the military and the National Guard. That would suggest that he was never convicted of a felony.

It is worth noting the language used by Garcia in appeal letters. Referrals to the New World Order and the Republic of New York would lead me to believe that he was interested in militia issues and other far-right perspectives on politics in the U.S.

The deputy commissioner of police argued that the terrorists, who were holed up in two major hotels and became involved in floor-by-floor firefights with police, were gaining tactical information from TV. Using powers under Section 19 of the country’s Cable Television Networks Act, he ordered a blackout of TV news channels.

“Transmission of various clippings/live relay/coverage of the actions being taken by the police against the terrorists in South Mumbai is causing impediment in the police action … thereby endangering the lives of the police personnel as also of the hostages,” the order stated.

Cable and satellite channels went off air for nearly half an hour before the order was rescinded.

Media chiefs present at a meeting between the MIB, the Indian Broadcasting Federation and News Broadcasting Assn. hit back by accusing the government information departments and ministerial interfaces of failing to keep up with developments in the media industry.

They said it was unclear which officials had authority to speak to the media, that government and media had never agreed to procedures for coverage of national emergencies, and that the Press Information Bureau is set up to handle print rather than broadcast and online media.

Through blogs, file-sharing and social networking functions on the Internet, dozens of eyewitness reports, some coming from within the two besieged hotels, delivered information faster than conventional media and challenged some of its reporting. Twitter, a user-generated service that delivers text message-sized “tweets,” for instance, reported that there was still gunfire inside the Taj Mahal long after Indian media had said it was finished. Others transcribed lists of casualties from the hospitals faster than mainstream media could access it.

Variety
By PATRICK FRATER

Hurricane Gustav was far less a threat than many expected, this past week. It presented the new media, Web 2.0 and even Web 3.0, with the opportunity to strut their stuff. Community building, networking, two-way communication, citizen journalism and more were on display.

Rick Sanchez led the way over at CNN. On Twitter, Rick is @ricksanchezcnn. Using Twitter, Facebook, e-mail and other New Media tools, Rick covered the hurricane with up to the second reports from people in New Orleans and elsewhere in the affected region. He was also able to respond to questions and concerns on the spot. I was one of many who had their “tweet” read on the air during that time.

Twitter is an unusual product that has exploded into the Internet in 2008, though it has been in existence since March, 2006. It is similar to text messaging on cell phones, only the message is limited to 140 characters. A variety of third parties have joined with the Twitter people to create a variety of interfaces, programs that allow you to have Twitter running and updating on your screen just as you would AIM or another Internet messaging program. There are also interfaces for a number of cellphones enabling you to twitter from your phone.

People were doing just that in New Orleans and other places where Hurricane Gustav hit.

Companies and groups were also using Twitter, and very effectively. Home Depot, @TheHomeDepot , was able to let everyone know which stores were open, or, newly reopened, and which stores have been resupplied. The Red Cross, @RedCross , sent out updates on their relief efforts, safety tips and encouragement. Sprint Nextel Corp.’s “Public policy PR guy” John Taylor, @jbtaylor , kept the world current with Sprint’s activities concerning the storm, and general information on how telecoms handle events like Gustav.

Twitter traffic about Hurricane Gustav got so heavy that a “hashtag” or unique identifier was created so that the Gustav traffic could be found via Twitter Search. #gustav became the identifier for all Hurricane Gustav tweets and the entire list went up here.

Two other New Media sites were created for Gustav. The social network site Ning was used by Andy Carvin, @acarvin , to create a place to aggregate all the Gustav information flying around the Internet. He, and the people who worked with him, also set up the Hurricane Information Center Wiki. The Ning site was for tweets, e-mails and other up to the minute information. The wiki was a collaborative effort to put all the static information in one place.

Both site were very active and today contain a tremendous amount of information about Hurricane Gustav, the people it affected, the places it affected and how others world-wide helped and are still helping.

Rick Sanchez of CNN was not alone in working with the New Media while in Old Media. A number of reporters also were on Twitter and posting pictures to sites like Flickr where they could be seen by all. The Chicago Tribune had @GustavReporter also known as James Janega and several associates in New Orleans and they produced for both Old and New Media.

The hurricane was also blogged by many people, including some world-class experts. Brendan Loy made his place in Internet history with his outstanding blogging during Hurricane Katrina and continued it with Gustav. Dr. Jeff Masters continued his hurricane blogging with Gustav. Many others, weather experts and weather amateurs, contributed to the information and dialog throughout the period.

Hurricane Gustav allowed New Media to strut its stuff. It did not replace Old Media, but it gave Old Media an up-to-the-minute information stream and feedback that it had never worked with before. It was communication in its truest sense, media, companies and organizations and information consumers / providers all working together in real time to assist, inform and reveal the disaster that was Gustav.