January 2009	June 2010	Change
Employed	142,221,000	139,119,000	-3,102,000	LOSS
Total Unemployed	12,653,000	15,830,000	3,177,000	INCREASE
Unemployed	11,919,000	14,623,000	2,704,000	INCREASE
Discouraged	734,000	1,207,000	473,000	INCREASE
True unemployment rate	8.90%	11.38%		INCREASE
Participation rate	65.70%	64.70%	-1.00%	DROP
Employment/Population ratio	60.60%	58.50%	-2.10%	DROP

The White House and its allies have been touting the claims contained in the Council of Economic Advisers’ latest quarterly report that

the Recovery Act is already responsible for 2.5 to 3.6 million – or about 3 million – jobs

The table above was created using the data from the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. These are the government’s own numbers, used by their agencies and a wide variety of private businesses for planning and decision making.

The number of Americans employed has decreased by over 3.1 million since the Obama administration took office. True unemployment, the total unemployed and the total discouraged from looking for work, has increased over the same time frame by nearly 3.2 million Americans.

True unemployment includes those unemployed and looking for work and those no longer looking, the discouraged. The true unemployment rate on January 31, 2009 was 8.9%. As of June 30, 2010 it was 11.38%.

When the Obama Administration took office, 65.7% of the population participated in the work force. That rate is now 64.7%. In January 2009, 60.6% of the population was working and that rate is now 58.5%.

For the White House claims to be correct, either the BLS data is wrong, or the Recovery Act prevented unemployment from reaching a level of 6 million Americans. The data clearly demonstrates that about 3 million fewer Americans are no longer working.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has this to say about the employment / unemployment situation in June 2010:

In June, about 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, an increase of 415,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

Among the marginally attached, there were 1.2 million discouraged workers in June, up by 414,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.4 million persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Click on the graph for a larger image.

GRAPH ONE:

This graph shows the combination of people unemployed and those listed as discouraged from January 2008 through June 2010. This is the “true” unemployment rate since discouraged workers are no longer counted by the BLS as unemployed. Discouraged workers are no longer looking for work.

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GRAPH TWO:

This line graph shows the total “true” unemployment from January 2008 through June 2010 along with a line representing the trend for the period.

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GRAPH THREE:

Graph three shows the same data as graph two, only in the period January 2009 through June 2010, President Obama’s current tenure. The trend line for the period is also shown.

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GRAPH FOUR:

The last twelve months are shown on this graph of the “true” unemployment in the United States, with a trend line.

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GRAPH FIVE:

This graph shows the “true” unemployment in the United States for the year 2010. The trend line appears flat, suggesting that unemployment may not change in the next several months.

Unemployment represents the people without jobs who are looking for work. “True” unemployment adds those people who have given up looking and are not employed – hence the term “discouraged”.

The number of discouraged workers is at its highest level since the category began being tracked in 1994. Here is a graph from the BLS website illustrating the situation.

Record numbers of people no longer looking for work and not included in the unemployment figures touted by the Administration represents a serious economic issue, as well as a political one.

This is what our President has on the White House website as this story is written:

Here are some graphs that more accurately portray the road we’re on.

The graphs clearly show that the trend of “true” unemployment, the standard unemployment number plus the number of those who are discouraged and no longer looking for work, is not turning a corner. 2010 numbers show that there is still an increasing number of “true” unemployed despite the Census hirings.

The number of employed month to month means nothing if the number of unemployed does not go down.

With the release of the unemployment figures for December 2008, the era of the Bush economy can be said to have ended for comparative purposes. BLS link

Here is how the Clinton years stack up against the Bush years.

Average Monthly Unemployment Rates
	ALL	WOMEN	BLACK	HISPANIC
Clinton Term I	6.00%	5.26%	11.33%	9.70%
Clinton Term II	4.41%	3.94%	8.64%	6.77%
Clinton Total	5.20%	4.60%	9.99%	8.23%
Bush Term I	5.51%	4.79%	10.01%	7.19%
Bush Term II	5.03%	4.40%	9.32%	6.12%
Bush Total	5.27%	4.59%	9.66%	6.66%

In the eight years that Bill Clinton was President, the number of civilians employed increased by 14,694,000. In George Bush’s eight years in office that number was 11,199,000.

While unemployment rates remain above any record lows, it is clear that the overall labor market since 1992 has improved for Blacks and Hispanics.

It is also clear that education matters. The December overall unemployment rate for people without a high school diploma is 10.9%. The diploma reduces the rate to 7.7%. Having some college brings it down to 5.6% and having that 4 year degree lowers it to 3.7%

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Total Civilian Work Force

Nonfarm payroll employment fell by 240,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.1 to 6.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. October’s drop in payroll employment followed declines of 127,000 in August and 284,000 in September, as revised. Employment has fallen by 1.2 million in the first 10 months of 2008; over half of the decrease has occurred in the past 3 months. In October, job losses continued in manufacturing, construction, and several service-providing industries. Health care and mining continued to add jobs.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage point to 6.5 percent in October, and the number of unemployed persons increased by 603,000 to 10.1 million. Over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 2.8 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 1.7 percentage points.

The unemployment rates for adult men (6.3 percent), adult women (5.3 percent), whites (5.9 percent), and Hispanics (8.8 percent) rose in October. The jobless rates for teenagers (20.6 percent) and blacks (11.1 percent) were little changed. The unemployment rate for Asians in October was 3.8 percent, not seasonally adjusted.

Among the unemployed, the number of persons who lost their job and did not expect to be recalled to work rose by 615,000 to 4.4 million in October. Over the past 12 months, the size of this group has increased by 1.7 million.

In October, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) rose by 249,000 to 2.3 million. The long-term unemployed accounted for 22.3 percent of total unemployment. The newly unemployed–those who were jobless fewer than 5 weeks–increased by 212,000 to 3.1 million in October.

Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

The civilian labor force participation rate (66.1 percent) and the employment-population ratio (61.8 percent) were little changed in October. Since a recent high in December 2006, the employment-population ratio has declined by 1.6 percentage points.

Unemployment Rate for All Races

Unemployment Rate for Whites

Unemployment Rate for Blacks

Unemployment Rate for Hispanics