Yet again, the media and the Democrats are using an “apples and oranges” argument to advance their false thesis that job growth is weak under President Bush.

BLS

The number of Americans with jobs rose in June from 143,976,000 to 144,363,000, an increase of 387,000 people. The number of people unemployed fell by 58,000 and the number of people not in the labor force fell by 87,000. That hardly appears weak or sluggish.

I’ve seen comparisons with the Clinton “robust” jobs growth. The graph below illustrates the growth for both Clinton and Bush for each of the years of their Presidency.

Note that Bush year six is only half over. We can reasonably expect a final number much higher than that displayed. Bush year one is, of course, the Clinton recession and the effects of the murders on September 11.

Note that Clinton did not add employment in any manner that could be described as robust, at least if your definition of “robust” includes steady growth or even maintaining existing growth. Bush has exceeded Clinton’s job growth two of the first five years of their administrations and is poised to do so for this year as well.

Let’s compare unemployment rates. Here is a graph showing the comparative averages for both Presidents, term year by year.

Would the term “virtually identical” be appropriate?

The facts are that job growth and unemployment have been at least as good under George Bush as they were under Bill Clinton. Job growth has trended upward for all six years of the Bush administration but it was not the case under Clinton. In fact, the trend was the opposite.

And… let us not forget that Bill Clinton was our first “black” President. Here is the term over term comparison for average yearly black unemployment.

It looks like the Bush record is “virtually identical” to the Clinton record.

The only way the media and the Democrats can spin these facts is by distorting them. The Bush economy is every bit as healthy as the Clinton economy, if not more so.

Larry Kudlow thinks oil prices will drop, a lot. He’s dead wrong, again.

Real Clear Politics

A combination of market forces and government deregulation could be setting us up for a big crack in energy prices, including gas at the pump. And it may happen sooner rather than later. Many years ago, during the 1970s oil crisis, Milton Friedman argued that free markets are more powerful than OPEC, and Ronald Reagan proved the point when prices plunged after he deregulated energy in the early 1980s. Twenty years later, energy-market forces may be poised to assert themselves once more.

Oh, Larry, Larry, Larry. Wrong yet again.

Why would producers keep oil at sea at $75 a barrel waiting for prices to drop?

U.S. demand is only part of the reason that world oil prices are high. We produce almost half our need. China and India produce diddly squat [technical term]. As long as their demand goes up, world prices will too. The only producer ramping up production is Iraq and that new half million barrels is a drop in the bucket.

And they licensed a new reactor. Whoopdie doo. They haven’t even broken ground yet, much less addressed the avalanche of law suits that will have to be resolved before one electron is generated.

As for oil supplies, the amount in inventory is about 1 month of imports for the US or about two weeks of overall need. Yeah, that’ll quench demand. Ummm…, Larry, how ya gonna refine it? Refineries are near max. EIA [pdf file]

35% of that increase in capacity is China. Three quarters of the increase is due to four countries, China, the United States, South Korea and India. Only the U.S. produces any significant portion of its oil needs. The other three countries are big oil importers.

These nations are not going to stop importing oil. They are going to add refining capacity, but for their own use, not for export. That will support high oil prices since the demand will continue to exceed supply.

A year ago, Larry was praising the Chinese for their stable currency policies. The ones that keep our trade deficit artificially high and help support the Ponzi scheme that is the Chinese economy.

Nothing in Larry’s essay suggests that there is any reason to believe that oil prices will fall. He fails to demonstrate any increases in supply or any significant decreases in demand. His highly touted market forces will do what they have been doing. Keep prices high.

Bet on oil prices staying well above $40 a barrel. Don’t bet on Larry Kudlow.

Energy Information Administration [This link will have new data every month.]

These are the latest numbers, for March 2006. I wanted to demonstrate the origins of imported oil. Oil imports from both North and South America total 55%. The Arab component includes the Gulf and Algeria. Other is the U.K. and Norway.

The United States is not dependent upon Gulf oil. Our allies in Europe and Asia are more so. We can afford to lose the Arab share, or the South American share without much pain, but we do have to keep in mind the effects any of our actions might have on the supplies to our allies as well.

Another of the Walmart battles being fought nationwide. More at the link. Note my bolded phrase.

Wellsville Daily Reporter

The commonly known Allegheny Alligator surfaced at the public hearing concerning the expansion of Wal-Mart in the village of Allegany Wednesday night.

David J. Seeger, a Buffalo environmental attorney well-know to Allegany County nuke dump fighters, attended the meeting representing Community First, a group bent on busting Wal-Mart’s Allegany expansion plans. Seeger brought with him information on a tiny salamander that may or may not exist in the Allegheny River in which, water from 2-Mile Creek is deposited. Run-off from the Wal-Mart parking lot eventually runs into the creek. The Eastern Hellbender Salamander, better known locally as the Allegheny Alligator, Seeger said, is recognized by the Department of Environmental Conservation as a specie which needs “special consideration.” Seeger is asking the DEC to place the salamander on the threatened or endangered specie list. Then he wants the DEC to investigate the river for the existence of the salamander.

Seeger also brought other concerns to the hearing. According to him the expansion plan is a non-conforming use under current zoning law, and the storm water system management is not acceptable under DEC regulations. “I’m asking the planning board to vote no on the site plan and development plan approval for this expansion plan,” he said.

Nearly 200 people attended the meeting. Buttons expressing “Yes Wal-Mart” or “I Support a Super Community,” were about evenly distributed. Most who expressed concern about the expansion project cited low wages, poor health benefits, and a lack of public concern for the community as reasons why not to let the retail giant expand its current facility.

Most of those for the expansion project cited the local store’s good wages, life-saving health care and its $152,000-plus contribution to local charities in 2005. Many of them were Wal-Mart employees.

UPDATE:

Inhabiting only two of New York State’s river drainages, the eastern hellbender is an intriguing and bizarre animal and hails as the Americas’ largest aquatic salamander. Sexually mature adult hellbenders range in size from 12-29 inches (30-74 cm) and vary in color from grayish to olive brown and occasionally entirely black. Individuals usually sport dark mottling over the back and upper sides. Several loose flaps of thick, wrinkled skin, which serve a respiratory function, run laterally along either side of the animal. These salamanders are perfectly adapted to their swift flowing stream habitats with their flattened head and body, short stout legs, long rudderlike tail, and very small beady eyes.

How’d you like to have one of these little *** creatures *** swim by you? 29 freakin’ inches long!

The Los Angeles Times has a good piece about the Dubai Port situation, that spells out reality. Not that this will change the fevered minds of most opponents of the P&O purchase.

Before getting the approval of the Committee on Foreign Investments in the United States, Dubai Ports World agreed to enforce the existing security standards at U.S. ports, maintain personnel and share operational information such as security measures and employee backgrounds with the U.S. government, U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman said during a news briefing. But the interagency panel didn’t impose other routine restrictions, including requiring the company to keep copies of business records on U.S. soil, Associated Press reported Wednesday.

Foreigners are already major operators in U.S. ports. Thirteen of 14 container terminal operators at the Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex are foreign-owned, including companies from China, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and Denmark.

Ports pose a security concern because only a portion of the more than 14 million containers that arrive in the U.S. every year are inspected. Many fear that the containers could easily be used to smuggle weapons, such as so-called dirty bombs, into the country. Efforts to install U.S. inspectors in foreign ports are just beginning and funding for port security, which has increased 700% since the Sept. 11 attacks, lags behind aviation security funding.

P.J. Crowley, domestic security expert at the Center for American Progress in Washington, said that insufficient security at America’s ports was the nation’s “greatest single vulnerability,” and the federal government had provided insufficient resources to prevent the “nightmare scenario” of a nuclear device being smuggled into the U.S. in a shipping container.

But Crowley and other security experts didn’t see the Dubai Ports World purchase as a threat because of the way U.S. ports operated. The transaction wouldn’t alter security procedures or the makeup of the unionized workforce on the ground.

Dubai Ports World has a reputation as an efficient port operator with a good security record, including early participation in the U.S. Container Security Initiative, which places U.S. customs agents overseas to screen and secure cargo. Dubai Ports World’s chief operating officer, Edward H. Bilkey, is an American, and the Bush administration recently nominated a former Dubai Ports World executive, David Sanborn, to be the U.S. maritime administrator.

“There are significant areas of concern in the area of port security, but this one company is not a significant security threat,” said Joseph J. Bouchard, executive director of domestic security and defense at Zel Technologies in Virginia.

Much ado about nothing. Remember, one foreign company is buying another. Nearly all of P&O’s operations are overseas. The American operations are not the sum total of the company. The United States has NO ability to block the purchase. All our government could do is to interfere with the contracts currently in place with P&O to operate the terminals and provide labor, contracts which are legal and enforceable in the courts.

Prior posts about this issue:

American Port Operations
Port Security