Avian Influenza A/(H5N1) Lies?
As I’ve pointed out on other blogs, the World Health organization is growing increasingly unreliable at providing accurate information.. We saw it with the SARS epidemic. We saw it with the Marburg outbreak in Angola.
On their site, WHO reports the number of confirmed avian flu cases in Turkey as 4 as of January 25. Yet, also on their site, in a report dated January 18, WHO reports
The newly confirmed case brings the total in Turkey to 21. Of these cases, four were fatal. All four were residents of Dogubayazit.
If the figure of 21 is reliable, then I have to wonder where the other cases are. There are many miles and many birds between the original locus of this problem in Southeast Asia and Turkey. Turkish officals have speculated that some of their neighbors are concealing, or, at best, not recognizing avian flu cases. The public health abilities of most of the nations in the “bird flu gap” is minimal at best, so human cases could certainly be going unnoticed.
Yet, this disease is so deadly in poultry, it would be very, very difficult to overlook. If thousands of chickens die suddenly, you would think someone would notice.
I would issue a strong warning to people attempting to analyze this disease based on WHO statistics. Be very careful that you have received accurate data. Right now the data from Turkey is highly suspect. Given the behavior of the Chinese government during the SARS epidemic, you can expect them to avoid providing truthful responses and accurate data about their avian flu problems. It is in no country’s self-interest to be honest about the spread of avian flu in their nation.
I’d love a windowed, corner office in Zurich. I hear the WHO folks do their best work from there.
